Its really impressive to see a guy go out there and throw a ton of strikes and throw strikes with his offspeed pitches. Heywards value also wasnt helped by a Braves lineup that finished among baseballs worst in wOBA and runs scored, and if the Braves were to move Evan Gattis this winter to make room for Christian Bethancourt, the lineup likely would only be weaker in 2015. Sources - Fangraphs, Baseball Savant, MLB.com, Baseball Reference. by Retrosheet. Miguel Rojas will replace Lux at shortstop. Even with a bum shoulder, Heyward has managed to draw a decent amount of walks and hit for some power. Well know whats up by the beginning of May. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. Gift a Membership. Which can be overcome, but only by also hitting fewer grounders. Only Al Kaline, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey, Jr., and Alex Rodriguez were within 15 runs on defense and ahead of him on offense. sent RF Jason Heyward on a rehab assignment to Gwinnett Braves. Hes forever been a work in progress, so maybe hed change his focus on a whim. But a lot of the value Heyward accumulated last season he did in a fashion that might seem Troutian. Greatest Careers Through Age 25 Since World War II, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 30, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 35, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps Through Age 25, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps Through Age 26, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35. Yeah, if continued this would make him shiftable. Games. He swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (28.3%, compared to 23.3% in 2010), which led to a dip in his walk rate (11.2 BB%). Regarding the second concern, I attempted to isolate only very good fielding outfielders. Interestingly, although Heyward swung less frequently than in any season since his 2010 debut, he finished with a 10.3% walk rate thats below his career average and set a new personal low for pitches per plate appearance. I looked through age 25, but lacking enough comps, expanded the age range to 26 years old. The ZiPS top prospect list (ranking on the basis of minor league stats and player comps - no scouting) is going to make you sad, because outfield prospect Alexander Canario shows up at number 33. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Crossword; Sudoku; Crossword; Sudoku _____ About Us Looking solely at defense, these are the types of players who compare with Heyward. While Heyward did fall into some bad habits at the plate last year and has some durability concerns, this is a perfect time to buy low on a youthful outfielder with superstar potential. On June 3, Higgins recorded his first major league hit, . by Handedness, Making Too Much of Too Little Jason Heyward, Effectively Wild Episode 852: 2016 Season Preview Series: Chicago Cubs, Evaluating the 2016 Prospects: St. Louis Cardinals, pulled ground balls have by far the lowest success rate of any balls in play. Given his decent wheels, it seems highly unlikely that Heyward will continue to keep company with players who run like they have grand pianos strapped to their backs. Also keep in mind that ZiPS, Bill James and Oliver dont know that Heyward was taking cuts with a bad shoulder last year; they just see a young guy who struggled after a fantastic rookie year. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as "more than adequate" in the field at center. Even with the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders, Heyward was likely the victim of some bad bounces. Meanwhile, the team is likely stuck with big contracts for the likes of B.J. Heywards .113 ISO was no less than 71 points below his career mark entering this year, he slugged just .384 and notched only 58 RBIs, despite making about one-third of his plate appearances as the fifth hitter in the Braves order. Adding in 23 steals on 26 attempts and the rest of his baserunning, Heywards 22 runs above average on offense placed him within the top quarter of qualified hitters. Jason Heyward CF B/T: L/L 6' 5" 240LBS Age: 33 Draft: 2007 Rd: 1, #14, Atlanta Braves Henry County (GA) HS Player Apps Pitch Highlighter Player Similarity Shifts Swing Take Profile illustrator Zone Swing Profile Player Comparison Transaction History Show Random Video Stats Statcast Standard Splits Game Logs MLB Minors Batting Fielding Visuals The Dodgers lost their starting shortstop for the entirety of the 2023 season in the third game of spring training. I looked for outfielders from 1960 to 2007 who produced defensive runs above average (which includes the positional adjustment) within 20 runs of Heywards 61.9 runs above average mark. Throw caution to the wind, even. Over the last four years, he hasn't had a wRC+ under 110 or over 121, but there's so clearly the. by Retrosheet. Only Garrett Jones (three of 108) had a smaller percentage of GDPs with a minimum of 100 opportunities. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. He was 97-98 [mph], but I dont think that was the most interesting part of the outing. The general concern around Heyward and defense is twofold. Tony Conigliaro was unfortunately never the same after a pitch permanently injured him, while other players like Ruben Sierra and Carlos Baerga simply did not produce despite opportunities. For a big man, he can run a little All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Follow/harass him on Twitter @Karl_de_Vries. $8? May 23, 2011 Atlanta Braves placed RF Jason Heyward on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to May 22, 2011. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors This spring, Heyward has hit 18 flies and liners, and hes sent two of them toward left. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. When Ellsbury was Heywards age, he had just completed his second full season. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. As teams expect to get the best production at the beginning of the contract, they understand that a contract will likely underpay the player in the early years and potentially overpay him as he ages with the surplus from the beginning ideally canceling out the loss at the end. Second, if Heywards defense declines he ages, he is not likely to be of much value. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Higgins over one inning. According to Fangraphs, during his first six seasons, Jason Heyward was "worth" $198.1 million. But theres real doubt about his ability to deliver even 15 home runs or produce high amounts of runs and RBIs in that lineup, regardless of where he hits. Because, even if he did it from the corner outfield, Heyward was able to emulate the Angelic newcomer in a way. The team is confident in Jason Heyward. News; Wikipedia: . This group also aged incredibly well. As to the first, this is not the article to convince someone about advanced defensive metrics, but his highlight-reel catches, mutiple Gold Gloves and three Fielding Bible awards seem to indicate there is some consensus from all viewpoints on the excellence of Heyward as a fielder. Non-roster invitee Ronald Guzmn, who is in Giants camp as a two-way player, made his pitching debut in the ninth, surrendering a solo shot to P.J. by Retrosheet. If thats something hes really doing, its probably because hes trying to up his power output. Perhaps the most aggravating trends for Heyward are his propensity to pop the ball up, producing gimme outs, and chop the ball into the ground, failing to make good use of his prodigious power and 6-foot-5, 240 pound frame. He has played in Major League Baseball (MLB) for the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Instead, Heywards dinger deficiency has been the byproduct of some ominous declines: Whats changed? Perhaps rightfully so. This figure is not a conclusory number or necessarily the best way for projections, but simply another method in the attempt to find a likely value for Jason Heyward. If he took the same type of offensive step forward as Carlos Beltran and Reggie Smith, he might win an MVP. Notable in the Dodgers lineup is Jason Heyward playing in back-to-back games for the first time this spring, starting in centerfield for the second straight day. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Crawford is WAY ahead of simba according to pretty much every defensive metric this year. Then, showing off the kind of speed unexpected from a 6-foot-5, 250-pounder, Walker beat out a dribbler to third for an infield single. Combining average power with a low strikeout rate (14.8% in 2015) and a solid walk rate (9.2%), Heywards wRC+ of 121 puts him in the upper third in terms of the leagues hitters. He made his MLB debut that night against the Washington Nationals as a replacement for Jason Heyward, going hitless in 3 at-bats. Ronald Guzmnex-first baseman for the Texas Rangers, is pumping out 97-98 fastballs. With better luck, health and a little more development, Heyward could be a monster in 2012. At an age when most players are chasing a trip to Omaha or cutting their teeth in Low Class-A, Jason Heyward crushed major league pitching in 2010. Because it means Wheeler is now throwing a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a cutter, a tight slider, a bigger slider (aka the sweeper), a curveball and, occasionally, a changeup. . This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts * as the source of default lineups. FanSided 1 day Jason Heyward . These were the players remaining. As can always be said when writing about a small sample: What we have here is something to monitor. . FanGraphs projects San Diego as the . With such an advanced plate approach and gargantuan numbers in the minors (he slashed .323/.408/.555 while rising from High-A to Triple-A as a teenager in 2009), Heyward reached the show years before most hitters do. The team is confident in . Jason Heyward Los Angeles Dodgers Age: 33 Bats/Throws: L/L 6' 5" / 240 OF Quick Look 2022 Games Played: CF: 26 RF: 21 RotoWire News: Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday that Heyward. Going solely by offense, this group has a total bust rate of one in three. The numbers may seem outrageous, but MLB revenues have been rising at very high rates, and there is so rarely a player of Heywards caliber and age that the market will likely have a difficult time finding a consensus. Instead, Heyward will step into the box for his first post-All-Star at-bat with a .226/.315/.404 triple-slash. Taking the runs above average on offense from the offensive group and the runs above average from the defensive group, adding in the value of a replacement player by averaging the plate appearances from the two groups and then using ten runs per win, we can get an approximate value. by Handedness, Trying to Put a Value on Jason Heyward in Free Agency, Effectively Wild Episode 761: An Offseason Friday Gallimaufry, The Best of FanGraphs: November 2-6, 2015. Chicago Cubs. Heres a bomb to right-center. Technically, the entire 1927 Yankees couldnt legally buy a beer, either. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Heyward did it all offensively as a rookie: he showed superb plate discipline (a 14.6% walk rate), hit for power (a .179 Isolated Power) and didnt punch out at an exorbitant rate (20.5 K%). All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Now, increasingly deprived of opportunities to pull pitches, Heyward in recent years has been going the other way more often, and 2014 saw more than 19% of his plate appearances end with him hitting the ball to the opposite field, a new career high, and a credible explanation for the plunge in distance and home runs. Heyward is actually the most accomplished offensive player in the group due to being worth more than 20 runs above average on the bases, but strictly as a hitter, these are the players with similar profiles. Here is how they performed over their next ten seasons. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Its ever so early, but it seems like he could be working on that. The No. by Retrosheet. by Handedness. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Heyward improved slightly in the years to come but still struggled to get back to the form he showed prior to coming to Chicago. Jason Heyward isnt Mike Trout. Free agent Jason Heyward agreed to a $184 million, eight-year contract with the Cubs, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. According to FanGraphs, the 26-year-old was worth 6.0 fWAR (FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement) in '15the sixth most WAR among outfielders. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. But hes younger than Dustin Ackley, Jemile Weeks, Paul Goldschmidt, Dee Gordon, Jason Kipnis and a host of other rookies who had successful debuts in 2011, and hes younger than top-ranked prospects entering 2012 like Devin Mesoraco, Brett Jackson and Travis DArnaud. Obviously, Heyward is nowhere near as good as Rodriguez was then, but the argument for blowing the budget to sign him is a similar one. Thats been fairly consistent. The team is heavy on left-handed hitting outfielders, with David Peralta locked in along with Jason Heyward fighting for a spot and top prospect James Outman on the cusp. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. That should tell you all you need to know about the Blue Jays plans for their fourth outfield spot, and this assignment is something he plans to grab with both hands. Hes hit 24 homers the last two years combined. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Nick Frasso, who had a 1.83 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 54 innings last season, was acquired from the Blue Jays in . Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors The 19-year old was a first round pick in 2007 and has wasted no time The 19-year old was a first round pick in 2007 and has wasted no time establishing himself as a premier outfielder Prior to the . Those are just selective links, but they show Heyward with a right-center approach, and a good amount of batted-ball authority. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Where does all this leave the J-Hey Kid? Now, Heyward has an extended history of making various adjustments underneath, he hasnt been that static. Now, they are tasked with turning things around this year, in what should be a competitive National League once again. . It could have something to do with the. Rojas, a 34-year-old, glove-first veteran, was acquired in the winter to aid the groups depth. Sort the leaderboards for UBR or Ultimate BaseRunning, and Heyward floats to the top. Dont look at me. Thompson revived his career in Los Angeles last summer, hitting 13 homers with a .901 OPS. Age plays a crucial rule in projecting a players long-term performance, and Heyward still has plenty of development time left before he reaches what are typically the peak years of a hitters career. . All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. The pre-season #1 prospect, whose legend grew with each car he dented while going deep in spring training, batted .277/.393/.456. Its impossible for anyone outside of the Braves training room and front office to assess Heywards health. Latest News/Blog Posts about Jason Heyward. From 2017 to 2019, he hit .260/.335/.406 for a 96 wRC+ He seemed. If Heyward were coming off a .270/.365/.445-type season instead, you can bet he wouldnt be getting drafted behind guys like Corey Hart and Jayson Werth. 12 years and 0 . Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity. Watch as both teams attempt to take one step closer to . Heywards infield hit rate is three percent, which is in the same range as David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero and Billy Butler, guys whose times to first base are measured with sun dials instead of stop watches. Jason Heyward LAD OF L Born: 08/09/1989 Age: 33 FanGraphs Player Page Auctions are not allowed at this time On MLB 40-man: NO Acquired: Free Agent (CHC) Dec'22 Positions OF Overall Last 10. Heaney added that, in the regular season, he probably wouldnt have thrown that pitch in that situation. Jeff Zimmerman found that speedy players, like Heyward, age better than the rest of the baseball population. For my ease, I took five-year averages for both WAR and the cost of a win when calculating the total. Contracts matter Miller is entering his first year of arbitration while Heyward is now a FA. Its not so stark there are reasonable arguments to be made for Cabreras dominance at the plate, even if they rely on team- and division-based outcomes in the end but there was some of that bubbling under the surface of the debate. Signup . At the very least, we should expect Heywards average over the rest of the season to climb considerably. fangraphs.com 1d. All of this he managed while only stealing 21 bases. Just to be clear, this isnt a matter of Heyward trading fly balls for line drives; his batted ball distribution, including his GB/FB rate, has stayed remarkably steady over the past three seasons, a period that includes his 2012 campaign in which he bashed a career-high 27 home runs. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. The next group of comps considers only offensive production. by Retrosheet. Heyward might not be a burner, but he has posted average-ish Speed Scores so far and has rated as an above-average base runner overall. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the He started 13 games there in 2021 and six last season, but John Schneider is expecting more of a 50-50 split for Biggio between the infield and outfield this season, adding that hell play a ton of outfield. Dodgers outfielder Jason Heyward had glowing praise for manager Dave Roberts, whom he calls a "baseball rat" who loves being around the game. Oviedo began incorporating a sinker at the suggestion of coaches upon being acquired from the Cardinals at the Trade Deadline. He flew out to center field in his other at-bat in Friday's game. BIS found more under-cover evidence of his speed: Heyward only grounded into five double plays in 145 GDP opportunities. Unfortunately, for studying purposes anyway, there simply are not enough of those types of players to look at. There are few who doubt that, after finishing up his sixth season in Major League Baseball, Jason Heyward is a good player. Some call it a sweeper. Are the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders the result of his shoulder ailment, or normal growing pains for a player who wont turn 22 until August? Gallo got the upper hand on the Red Sox in his second inning at-bat, drawing a walk to nullify Boston's shift. Ground balls are a function of the swings, and consider Xander Bogaerts. Freddie Freeman homers, Miguel Vargas walks again, Walker Buehler starts throwing. FanGraphs Mugs. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, But thats never safe against a hitter like Betts, who launched it deep over the left-center-field wall at Surprise Stadium. Again, the talent is too much to ignore, and the increased contact and stolen bases are encouraging signs for a guy who still has at least a season or two to go before truly entering what should be the peak years of his career. A decade ago, the serious baseball fan serious, as in desperately wanting to increase his or her chances of winning his or her fantasy league had few places to turn. From 2010-2015, his 25 WAR was one of the top 20 marks in the game and in his final two seasons before free agency, his 10. Upton, Chris Johnson and Andrelton Simmons, and its worth noting that Justin Upton and Heyward too, for that matter will be a free agent after next year, leaving open the possibility that the Braves could move him if the team decides to rebuild. Jacoby Ellsbury just finished Year Two of his contract. Its not surprising. His rookie year was off-the-charts good I used ten-year figures in this analysis, but moving to an eight- or nine-year contract would not significantly change the values, as the bulk of all production is recorded in the early part of the contract. Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. In fact, only teammate Michael Bourn managed more defensive value all around from the outfield. From BIS, Heyward had the highest range numbers in the business. Karl, a journalist living in Washington, D.C., learned about life's disappointments by following the Mets beginning at a young age. . Jason Heyward, who was instrumental in the lore of the infamous Game 7 rain delay, was once the thorn in the side of fans looking for a scapegoat to blame for the club's lack of spending. The above comparison paints an incredibly optimistic and rosy view of Heywards future, but there is some evidence to suggest that phenoms like Heyward age better than the rest of the population.