Simulations of floods and extreme low flows increase in intensity for most of the river sites included in the study. Sites without modified or natural flow estimates are shown in yellow. Extreme event statistics are calculated directly from the raw (i.e., not bias-adjusted) daily streamflows at each streamflow site, applying methods developed by Hamlet and Lettenmaier (Citation2007) and Mantua et al. By closing this message, you are consenting to our use of cookies. The Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project (CBCCSP) was conceived as a comprehensive hydrologic database to support climate change planning, impacts assessment, and adaptation in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) by a diverse user community with varying technical capacity over a wide range of spatial scales. Highs in the lower to mid 40s. Impacts assessments from the WACCIA played a central role in these planning activities, but updated and extended data from the CBCCSP also materially supported these efforts. Figure 4 shows a flow chart of these post-processing steps. The CBCCSP was founded on the basis of regional partnerships to support a shared need for climate change scenarios and directly encompassed the transboundary nature of the CRB's management framework by including both US and Canadian interests in an integrated and comprehensive data resource. (2000). Right panel: Historical estimates of summer AET (upper right) compared with percentage changes for the same CD scenarios. Application Process How to Apply Sign-up for Program Updates However, our goal in this case was not to reduce the range of uncertainty by selecting a smaller group of GCMs. 5 Howick Place | London | SW1P 1WG. Impacts of Near-Term Climate Change on Irrigation Demands and Crop Yields in the Columbia River Basin, Impacts of climate change on the state of Indiana: ensemble future projections based on statistical downscaling. Did you know that with a free Taylor & Francis Online account you can gain access to the following benefits? are estimated by the VIC hydrologic model (discussed below) using empirical methods described by Kimball, Running and Nemani (Citation1997) and Thornton and Running (Citation1999). In particular, it is clear that Canada will have not only about 50% of the reservoir storage in the CRB (Hamlet, Citation2003) but also an increasingly dominant portion of the natural water storage as snowpack in the future. Flooding in these basins is sensitive to both warming (which raises snow lines and effectively enlarges the contributing basin area during most flood events) and increasing winter precipitation. Isaak DJ et al. The USFS and USFWS studies have supported a number of high-visibility ecosystem studies, including assessment of the impacts of changing snowpack on wolverine populations (McKelvey et al., Citation2011) and subsequent proposed ESA listing of wolverine populations, and comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts to trout species over the west (Wenger et al., Citation2011). Special thanks to Kurt Unger and Ken Slattery, who were the primary architects of the CBCCSP at WDOE. A primary motivation for the study was to support planning at geographic scales ranging from relatively small river basins (e.g., planning studies in individual sub-basins, such as the Yakima or Okanagan basins) to main-stem planning studies for the CRB as a whole (e.g., planning studies for the Columbia River hydro system). A number of high-visibility studies have made use of the CBCCSP database to date, a few of which are summarized below. Corresponding shifts in the seasonal timing of streamflow are also relatively small in the Canadian CRB until late in the twenty-first century. This is a good example of the use of the study data to support relatively fine-scale planning needs. This approach was partly based on practical limitations on time and computational resources but was also informed by previous experience using the VIC model at finer spatial scales. Intermediate products are available as well, which can be used by people with GIS capabilities, but with little or no knowledge of climate projections and hydrologic modelling. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Naturalized or modified flow data were available at a number of locations in the PNW. Exploring a Large Ensemble of Simulations Across a Diversity of Hydroclimates. These emerging needs ultimately led to the CBCCSP, and similar efforts in BC led by PCIC (Werner, Schnorbus, Shrestha, & Eckstrand, Citation2013). Highs in the lower 80s. The climate of the high mountain regionsthe pramos, ranging from about 10,000 to 15,000 feet (3,000 to 4,600 metres)is characterized by average temperatures below 50 F (10 C), fog, overcast skies, frequent winds, and light rain or drizzle. Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The Water Hub contains numerical and spatial data, reports, photos and other types of information about streams, lakes, wetlands, groundwater, snow, glaciers and climate in the Columbia Basin both historical and current. A family of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios used in the IPCC effort (Nakienovi et al. All of the meteorological forcing data, except wind speed, are reproduced in the output files produced by the hydrologic model. .. slide 2 of 5. Fig. 2010. The data is accessible for decision makers, researchers, students, professionals and the public. 1555. In this section we provide an overview of the methods associated with the primary elements of the CBCCSP. Lee. The calibrated CBCCSP VIC model was modified by WSU by integrating it with a sophisticated crop model (CropSyst; Stckle, Donatelli, & Nelson, Citation2003) that, among other functions, estimates crop water demand. The CBCCSP provided climate change projections of meteorological drivers and a calibrated VIC implementation in support of the study. People also read lists articles that other readers of this article have read. completed or are ongoing in the Columbia River Basin. Calibration of the VIC model was carried out using an automated calibration tool called MOCOM-UA developed by the Land Surface Hydrology group at the UW, following the approach described by Yapo, Gupta, and Sorooshian (Citation1998). This was coordinated through the River Management Joint Operating Committee (RMJOC), a sub-committee of the Joint Operating Committee which was established through direct funding Memorandum of Agreements between BPA, Reclamation, and the USACE. Yakima River Basin Study The sweeping statements in the 2007 IPCC AR4 (Solomon et al., Citation2007) regarding the scientific consensus on observed warming (unequivocal) and the direct human role in the alteration of the climate system (90% confidence) made it clear to many management professionals that the waiting game for climate change planning was nearing an end. Broad changes in shallow groundwater (e.g., localized contributions to streamflow from smaller unconfined aquifers), however, are likely well captured by the VIC model based on a strong correlation between VIC-simulated base flows and observations in many basins examined by Wenger et al. Ltude a produit une squence de traitements de donnes de bout en bout, la fine pointe, partant d'une sortie brute de modle climatique pour aboutir une srie de produits de modlisation hydrologique, qui sont offerts la communaut d'utilisateurs via une base de donnes Web. In other words, although at these sites the model results do not match the observations in the absolute sense (large bias), the relative changes follow the observed variations quite well (high R 2). These data are summarized in figures and tables prepared for each streamflow site discussed in Section 4. These hydrologic studies support detailed assessment of the economic impacts of climate change on irrigation and important crops in WA (Yorgey et al., Citation2011), which in turn will inform decisions regarding best use of funding to improve water supply benefits in WA under climate change. It is important to acknowledge that opinions differ on the utility or even possibility of improving ensembles of future projections based on the ability to simulate the past climate (e.g., Gleckler, Taylor, & Doutriaux, Citation2008). Other impacts, such as changes in soil moisture dynamics are also apparent in the simulations. Although results could potentially vary in different areas of the model domain, these results support the hypothesis that only modest improvements in validation statistics would result from individual calibration of additional streamflow sites within each sub-basin. Monday: A chance of snow before 4 p.m., then a slight chance of rain and snow. Dave Rodenhuis, Markus Schnorbus, Arelia Werner, and Katrina Bennett at PCIC at the University of Victoria, British Columbia, also provided in-kind support and funding for collaborative research which contributed materially to this project. Fig. Yorgey, G. G., Rajagopalan, K., Chinnayakanahalli, K., Brady, M., Barber, M. E., Nelson, R., Stockle, C. S., Kruger, C. E., Dinesh, S., Malek, K., Yoder, J., & Adam, J. C. (2011). (2005). In relatively wet and cool areas along the coast and at high elevation in the northern parts of the basin, summer AET is energy limited; therefore, rising temperatures result in increases in AET. The smallest of these sub-basins is about 500km2 (approximately fifteen 1/16 degree VIC cells), and the largest encompasses most of the CRB (approximately 620,000km2 or about 18,800 VIC cells). The Columbia Basin-Boundary region is already experiencing a climate that's different from 50 years ago. Interactive influences of climate change and agriculture on aquatic habitat in a Pacific Northwestern watershed, PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGES OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION, River Bed Elevation Variability Reflects Sediment Supply, Rather Than Peak Flows, in the Uplands of Washington State, Springs as hydrologic refugia in a changing climate? Crook, A. G. (1993). Final calibration results for the model are shown in Fig. Lvapotranspiration potentielle augmente dans la majeure partie de la rgion du Pacifique et du NordOuest en t cause des tempratures plus leves; cependant, lvaporation relle est rduite dans presque tous les secteurs du domaine parce que lvapotranspiration est principalement limite par l'eau en t et les prcipitations estivales diminuent dans les simulations. Gusts up to 20 mph in the morning. The CBCCSP was designed from the outset to support users with a very wide range of technical sophistication and capacity. Associated shifts in streamflow timing from spring and summer to winter are also evident in basins that currently have significant snow accumulation in winter, whereas rain-dominant basins show minimal shifts in streamflow timing. To produce the bias-adjusted flows, a bias correction procedure using quantile mapping techniques is applied (Elsner et al., Citation2010; Snover et al., Citation2003; Vano et al., Citation2010). The study was also unique in that this was the first time that these agencies had run their own reservoir operation models to assess climate change impacts in the CRB, an element of the study design which greatly increased the impact of the study conclusions in the agencies involved. Because both these effects increase flood risk in the simulations, the effects are unusually large in these basins (Fig. Les simulations dcoulements de crue et dtiage augmentent en intensit pour la plupart des sites fluviaux compris dans cette tude. USFWS (US Fish & Wildlife Service). Communities across the region and around the world are demonstrating that its possible to adapt, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and continue to thrive. The CBCCSP database has been a valuable public resource that has dramatically reduced costs in a number of high-visibility studies in the PNW and western United States focused on technical coordination and planning. Changes in snowpack are a key driver of hydrologic impacts in the PNW (Elsner et al., Citation2010; Hamlet & Lettenmaier, Citation1999b). Fig. Figures and summary tables for long-term average monthly precipitation, monthly average temperature, evapotranspiration, PET4 (Table 2), PET5 (Table 2), total column soil moisture, SWE, combined flow (runoff+baseflow). Blue lines show the average historical values (19162006) (repeated in each panel). Highs in the lower to mid 40s. The interested reader is directed to the CBCCSP report (Hamlet, Carrasco, et al., Citation2010a, Chapter 6) for a detailed discussion of methods and results. Thus, depending on their needs and level of technical sophistication, stakeholders can make the best use of the study products by extracting information at different points in the data processing sequence, all of which are available on the study web site. hbbd```b``z"I09 D.^`,L,=`v0fI" IA$C(QDrML@a`ig c 2), for which overall errors in meteorological driving data were assumed to be relatively small; then, using these model parameters, to check the results in smaller sub-catchments. Tonight Mostly cloudy. 2860, 59th Legislature (WA 2006). Results from the study show profound changes in spring snowpack and fundamental shifts from snow and mixed-rain-and-snow to rain-dominant behaviour across most of the domain. The Assessment will result in a better understanding the potential impacts of climate change on the eight components identified in SECURE in the Columbia River Basin. Snover, A. K., Hamlet, A. F., Lee, S.-Y., Mantua, N. J., Salath, E. P. Jr, Steed, R., & Tohver, I. Instead our primary goal was to encompass the approximate range of all available scenarios while reducing costs by downscaling projections from a subset of the larger group of 20 GCMs (Hamlet et al., 2010a). Previso do tempo local de hora em hora, condies climticas, precipitao, ponto de condensao, umidade, vento no Weather.com e The Weather Channel Fig. Simulated widespread increases in soil moisture recharge in fall and winter in areas with significant snow accumulation in winter (for the current climate) support hypotheses of increased landslide risk and sediment transport in winter in the future. Columbia River Basin Basin Overview . Although a number of pilot climate change studies have been carried out in the CRB in collaboration with various water management agencies in the past (e.g., NWPCC, Citation2005), the RMJOC study was something of a landmark in that it was the first time that the BPA, USBR, and USACE used climate change information in coordinated interagency planning exercises in the CRB. Contact Carri Hessman Program Manager (208) 378-5106 chessman@usbr.gov Bureau of Reclamation The Red Devils dropped the first game of the double-header 11-3 in five innings before . Mitigating the effects of climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River basin, Downscaling simulations of future global climate with application to hydrologic modeling, Review of scenario selection and downscaling methods for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology in the United States Pacific Northwest. From ecosystems, communities, and infrastructure, to our way of lifeeverything will be affected. RSUM[Traduit par la rdaction] Le projet de scnarios de changement climatique du bassin du Columbia (CBCCSP) a t conu comme une base de donnes hydrologiques complte pour appuyer les activits de planification, dvaluation des rpercussions et d'adaptation dans la rgion pacifique nordouest menes par une communaut d'utilisateurs diversifie disposant de capacits techniques varies dans une large gamme dchelles spatiales. Schnorbus, M. A., Bennett, K. E., Werner, A. T., & Berland, A. J. In much of the CRB, however, summer AET is water limited (i.e., there is abundant surface energy to evaporate whatever water is available), and changes in AET are dominated by decreasing summer precipitation in the scenarios, which effectively decreases summer AET in most cases. After fitting three-parameter generalized extreme value probability distributions to the annual peak flow data, the daily 20-, 50-, and 100-year floods (under natural flow conditions) are estimated for both historical and future periods. 6. Fig. Climate change effects on stream and river temperatures across the Northwest U.S. from 1980 - 2009 and implications for salmonid fishes. As mentioned above, 20062007 was something of a turning point for regional stakeholders considering future actions to prepare for climate change. 95 0 obj <> endobj Figure 1 shows a map of the approximately 300 streamflow locations that were ultimately compiled from these lists for inclusion in the study (a spreadsheet listing these sites is available on the CBCCSP website (CIG, Citation2013a)). A number of sub-basins are nested within each other, as shown in the right panel along with their relative sizes. Gridded meteorological datasets (daily total precipitation and maximum and minimum daily temperature) at 1/16 degree latitude-longitude resolution (approximately 7km by 5km) were constructed for the study from observed station records for the period 1915 to 2006. Either naturalized or modified flows (Crook, Citation1993) are used for bias correction of data provided in the site-specific products discussed below, with naturalized data taking precedence if available. Highs in the lower to mid 60s. 5. Three statistical downscaling approaches were selected or developed for the study: Composite Delta (CD): regional average projections compiled from 10 GCMs (Elsner et al., Citation2010), Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD): (Salath, Citation2005; Salath, Mote, & Wiley, Citation2007; Wood, Leung, Sridhar, & Lettenmaier, Citation2004; Wood, Maurer, Kumar, & Lettenmaier, Citation2002), Hybrid Delta (HD): (Hamlet et al., 2010a). The VIC model has been widely applied in climate change studies at both the regional scale (e.g., Christensen & Lettenmaier, Citation2007; Lettenmaier, Wood, Palmer, Wood, & Stakhiv, Citation1999; Maurer, Citation2007; Maurer & Duffy, Citation2005; Payne et al., Citation2004; Van Rheenen, Wood, Palmer, & Lettenmaier, Citation2004) and global scale (e.g., Adam, Hamlet, & Lettenmaier, Citation2009; Nijssen, O'Donnell, Hamlet, & Lettenmaier, Citation2001). The choice of the A1B scenario, however, was informed by the authors viewpoint that this scenario is an instructive and plausible scenario reflecting relatively little GHG mitigation until mid-century (similar to A2 until about 2050), followed by more effective GHG mitigation efforts in the second half of the twenty-first century as impacts intensify. Pink bands show the range of nine or ten HD climate change scenarios for B1 and A1B emissions scenarios for three future time periods. In other words, dry areas east of the Cascade Range have less base-flow potential to lose with increasing evapotranspiration and loss of summer precipitation because the soil moisture is already at very low levels in late summer. Retrieved from, CIG (Climate Impacts Group). 2013. A subsequent study in the Skagit River basin (Lee and Hamlet, unpublished manuscript) has demonstrated that substantial improvements in the simulation of high flow extremes can be achieved by calibrating the routing model, but it is not yet clear whether these conclusions can be generalized to other areas of the domain. An understanding of the basin's transboundary nature has also informed CIG's hydrologic modelling studies, which have consistently provided complete coverage of the Canadian and US portions of the basin. Daily streamflow data from the CD and HD downscaling methods are first processed to extract the peak daily flow in each water year of the simulations (91 years). Using the VIC model, the study has projected impacts for the Great Busin and the Columbia River, Missouri River, and Colorado River basins, and assessment of impacts in California is underway at the time of writing. This daily disaggregation technique sometimes introduces an undesirable discontinuity in the bias-corrected daily values at the beginning and end of months. Based on, Learn more about the impacts of climate change, Learn how the climate is changing in your area, Learn how our region is responding, and how you can be part of the solution, BC Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development. This extreme scenario, however, was only run by a few GCMs, which ultimately limits the ability to show consistent ranges of outcomes for each emissions scenario. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Both floods (Q100) and extreme 7-day low flows (7Q10) increase in intensity for most of the river sites simulated. Because of space limitations, we will not be able to cover these alternative modelling efforts in this paper. endstream endobj 96 0 obj <. For the future scenarios, the range of the projections (pink shading) is plotted. The bias-corrected monthly values are then used to rescale the simulated daily flow sequences produced by the hydrologic model to produce bias-corrected daily streamflows. The strategy for model calibration used in the CBCCSP was to calibrate 11 relatively large sub-basins within the domain (Fig. Des dplacements correspondants des caractristiques dcoulement fluvial du printemps et de lt vers l'hiver sont galement vidents dans les bassins o l'accumulation de neige est importante en hiver (sous le climat actuel). This choice was imposed by WDOE. But as researchers continue to fine tune climate models, shifting demand for water now must be accounted for, say Washington State University scientists. (, Washington State Department of Community Trade and Economic Development, Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model, A Monte Carlo hydropower and water resources simulation model developed by the NWPCC, Hybrid Delta statistical downscaling method, HYDropower SIMulation, a hydropower and water resources simulation model used by the BPA in the CRB, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. However, some areas west of the Cascade Range and in the northern Rockies show increasing AET. 3099067 The CBCCSP, in particular, provided access to additional scenarios and downscaling methods that provided a range of hydrologic outcomes associated with uncertainty in the climate projections, which the WACCIA assessments largely did not. Naturalized flow products from specific sites were also used to provide naturalized inflows at model nodes needed to run the USBR MODSIM (Labadie, Citation2007) reservoir model for the Snake River basin. Although these ongoing research and outreach efforts had already laid an extensive foundation in support of pilot climate services in the PNW, starting in 20062007 it was realized that a much more comprehensive and focused effort to provide hydrologic climate change scenarios was needed if stakeholders and water professionals in the region were to take the next steps in preparing for climate change. This has prompted the National Weather Service to issue a winter weather advisory for the Tri-Cities, Walla Walla, Hermiston, and surrounding areas in effect from 04:00 to 22:00 Sunday. During initial model development steps, Elsner et al. In the first five years (19952000) of operation, the research efforts of CIG were primarily directed towards the assessment of the impacts of interannual and interdecadal climate variability associated with ENSO (Battisti & Sarachik, Citation1995; Trenberth, Citation1997) and the PDO (Gershunov & Barnett, Citation1998; Mantua, Hare, Zhang, Wallace, & Francis, Citation1997). The CBCCSP database has been a valuable resource which has dramatically reduced the cost of a number of high-visibility planning studies in the PNW, including the RMJOC water resources planning studies conducted by the BPA, USBR, and USACE, WSU integrated crop modelling and irrigation water demand studies under HB2860, the WA Integrated Climate Change Response Strategy, and west-wide extensions of the CBCCSP supported by the USFS and USFWS. Reductions in spring snowpack and summer streamflow, for example, are relatively modest in the Canadian portions of the basin because of cold winter temperatures that delay warming-related impacts to seasonal snowpack (Elsner et al., Citation2010). Figures and summary tables for flood statistics and low-flow statistics. Naturalized streamflow data were used exclusively in the CBCCSP to calibrate the hydrologic model. Although not as extreme as A1FI, the high-end A2 scenario was archived by most GCMs and could have been used in the CBCCSP in place of the A1B scenario. The DOI via the USFWS has recently established a set of LCCs across the United States (USFWS, Citation2013) and has generated additional funding to support a group of regional CSCs, one of which was recently established in the PNW (PNWCSC), combining the efforts of about 15 PNW research universities, jointly led by the USGS, Oregon State University, the UW, and the University of Idaho. Agencies at the state and local levels were similarly engaged, two notable examples in the PNW being King County, Washington (Casola et al., Citation2005), and the WDOE, which manages (among many other water-related issues) the state's water resources and water quality permitting programs. 11). The Climate Resilience Program helps communities in the Basin become more climate resilient by supporting large-scale, multi-year, shovel-ready climate mitigation, adaptation, and resilience projects that address sources of climate change or manage the risks of climate change impacts. Nakienovi, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., De Vries, B., Fenhann, J., Gaffin, S.,Dadi, Z. To support ecosystem research and impacts assessment, CIG extended the project to include specific meteorological and hydrological variables needed to support ecological studies (see discussion in Section 3). Starting from these parameter sets, an additional large-scale calibration was performed during the CBCCSP to improve model performance in reproducing historical streamflow. (Citation2010). Additional meteorological forcings needed for hydrologic model simulations (e.g., net incoming long- and shortwave radiation, dew point temperature, etc.) Observations around the world demonstrate that the global atmosphere has been warming rapidly since the 1970s, with temperatures up an average of 1.7 degrees Fahrenheit in that time and expected to increase between 1 and 4 degrees by the 2030s, Pytlak said. The state of Oregon, for example, is classified as about 75% mixed-rain-and-snow for the twentieth century climate. Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data, British Columbia Ministry of Environment (Canada), Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation, Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, Composite Delta statistical downscaling method, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Two)Supported the IPCC TAR, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Three)Supported the IPCC AR4, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Five)Supports the IPCC AR5, A water resources simulation model for the CRB developed by Hamlet and Lettenmaier (, A crop system simulation model developed by Stckle et al. The largest increases in flooding are in mixed-rain-and-snow basins whose current mid-winter temperatures are within a few degrees of freezing. Based on these substantial differences in hydrologic impacts it is difficult to escape the conclusion that management of water resources in the Canadian portions of the basin will play a crucial role in the ability of US water managers to adapt to more substantial changes in streamflow timing and summer low flows in the United States. 2 Eleven sub-basins in the CRB used for large scale calibration (left panel). These products are based solely on the CD and HD projections listed in Table 1. 6 Example of a summary plot for extreme high flows (Q20, Q50, Q100, left panels) and extreme low flows (7Q10, right panels) for the Skagit River at Mount Vernon for two emissions scenarios (A1B, B1) and three future time periods (2020s, 2040s, 2080s). The Assessment was initiated in June 2013 and is expected to completed in December 2015. The largest increases in flooding are in mixed-rain-and-snow basins whose mid-winter temperatures are presently within a few degrees of freezing. Since its inception in 1995, CIG has been extensively involved in climate-related research focused on the CRB and its water resources management systems. These include the full meteorological forcings for the model (variables 18), a suite of water balance variables simulated by the model (variables 916), and five different PET metrics (variables 1721) (Elsner et al., Citation2010). Atmosphere Ocean 51. Explore this website to learn more about the changes were expecting, and what we can do about them. In 2021, these livestock operations alone accounted for 75% of deforestation on public lands, according to a study by the Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM).. Temperature and precipitation vary greatly with elevation, but in the central basin January average daily temperatures are between about 25 and 30 F (4 and 1 C), and July averages are mostly between 70 and 75 F (21 and 24 C). Fig. Monthly hydrographs in different portions of the domain primarily reflect changes in snow accumulation and melt processes and seasonal changes in precipitation (generally wetter falls, winters, and springs and drier summers). The BCSD runs are transient runs from 1950 to 2098 or 1950 to 2099 (depending on the GCM). The city's average temperature is 57 F (14 C). 8). In the remainder of this paper, we present an overview of the development of the CBCCSP, a description of the primary methods used to produce the study databases, an overview of the products and information the study databases provide, and some high-visibility examples of the use of these products and services in regional planning. Naturalized and modified streamflow data were used to produce bias-corrected streamflow realizations (see below). Blue dots represent the historical values; the red dots show the range of values from the HD ensemble (10 or 9 values); black dashes show the mean of the HD ensemble, and the orange dots show the single value calculated for the CD projections.